Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming the foundation of a transforming global economy, reshaping the international order as we enter the Fourth Industrial Revolution. This pivotal technology has positioned itself at the center of global competition, particularly between the United States and China, which will significantly influence the future world landscape. Political economist Professor Zheng Yongnian explores these dynamics, noting the contrasting AI development paths of China and the U.S., and emphasizing the potential for cooperation.
Unlike nuclear weapons, which are largely contained, AI infiltrates daily life, posing the risk of evolving into a “man-made God” with far-reaching implications. The intertwining of AI with nuclear capabilities introduces a new dynamic of cold war, wherein the stakes of either cooperation or conflict extend beyond national interests, affecting global stability.
Historically, international orders have shifted based on their economic foundations. Marx asserted that the economic base shapes the superstructure, influencing both domestic and global political structures. During agrarian times, societies relied on limited productivity to manage populations. The Age of Commerce saw trade routes underpinning the global order, which later shifted to industrial production and energy dominance in the Industrial Age. In the Information Age, control over data became essential for international power. Now, as the Fourth Industrial Revolution unfolds, AI is positioned as the cornerstone of a new global order, redefining power structures and strategic interests across nations.
The Transformation of the International Order through AI Competition
The emergence of AI-driven economic models signals the decline of the old international structure and the rise of new systems centered around AI. This shift is characterized by intense competition, primarily between China and the United States, as their rivalry in AI development extends beyond technology to fundamentally shape the future of the global order.
Despite ongoing global conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, a broader war has been averted partly due to the absence of direct confrontation between China and the U.S. China’s policy of non-alignment in international conflicts has contributed to maintaining global stability, even as U.S. policymakers push an ideological agenda against a perceived China-Russia axis. Should China choose sides in these conflicts, it could escalate into a larger global confrontation.
This rivalry, however, highlights the instability of the current international system. Countries, including China and the U.S., struggle to address growing challenges, hindered by intense competition and insufficient collaboration. This tension indicates that while rivalry may fuel AI advancement, genuine cooperation could ultimately lead to a more stable world order.
The future trajectory of this order remains uncertain. A continued conflict may usher in a Cold War reminiscent of the U.S.-Soviet era, where AI technologies serve as deterrents. Conversely, if the U.S. and China pursue cooperation, AI could be harnessed for global benefit, establishing a stable international order founded on robust risk management and security frameworks.
Ultimately, the evolution of U.S.-China relations in AI will profoundly influence the emerging world order, determining whether it is constructed on the fragile foundations of conflict or the resilient framework of cooperation.
The New Cold Peace Model
Henry Kissinger draws parallels between current U.S.-China AI negotiations and Cold War-era nuclear arms talks. The Cold War’s Cold Peace model, characterized by minimal direct engagement and mutual deterrence, allowed for effective regulation of nuclear capabilities through international bodies. However, the complexities introduced by AI challenge the established norms of nuclear deterrence. Unlike tangible nuclear weapons, AI is embedded in human life, influencing daily experiences and interactions, thereby evolving into a “man-made God.”
The regulatory landscape for AI is still developing. While some nations avoid regulation to boost competitiveness, others remain cautious, hindering progress. Effective governance in AI necessitates a balance between security and advancement, yet no comprehensive regulatory framework currently exists. Major powers are primarily focused on establishing dominance over collaboration.
If the U.S. and China cannot find common ground on AI, the result may mirror the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, where “AI deterrence” becomes a focal point of contention. Such a scenario could exacerbate risks and distrust. In contrast, cooperation presents an opportunity to leverage AI’s transformative potential for societal benefit, steering global development within a secure framework.
The dynamics of competition and cooperation between the U.S. and China in AI highlight their distinct priorities and approaches. The U.S. focuses on rapid commercialization, emphasizing consumer and business applications that drive innovation but often lack robust regulatory oversight. In contrast, China prioritizes regulation, aligning its AI development with national security and social stability objectives.
While the U.S. excels in core technologies, China leads in applying AI within its regulated framework. Political distrust complicates collaboration, as U.S. rhetoric often frames China’s regulatory approach as “authoritarian.” However, as domestic AI challenges grow, the U.S. may increasingly recognize the need for regulatory measures to address issues such as algorithmic bias and privacy concerns.
The competition between the two countries is driven by the desire to maintain technological dominance and the urgency to close the innovation gap. The U.S. favors a capital-driven, bottom-up approach, while China adopts a regulation-first model. This philosophical divide underscores the competitive nature of AI development while suggesting opportunities for cooperation.
To move past rivalry, both nations must foster mutual trust amid entrenched strategic suspicions. The choice lies in pursuing either a high-stakes competition or a balanced coexistence that combines innovation and regulation for the greater global good.
Growing AI Gap between China and the U.S.
The growing competition between China and the U.S. in AI is rooted in both gaps and divergent approaches. While true competition assumes alignment on a similar trajectory, the differences in their AI strategies offer avenues for collaboration, akin to leveraging comparative advantages in economic exchanges.
The U.S. has made significant advancements in AI technologies, focusing on commercial applications and foundational models, but faces challenges from regulatory gaps that contribute to societal issues. Conversely, China’s highly regulated AI sector emphasizes applications like national security and surveillance, placing it ahead in certain areas while potentially stifling innovation through over-regulation.
Despite China’s advancements in scientific publications, its commercial AI applications lag behind the U.S. as regulatory measures stifle innovation. To bridge this gap, China must balance regulation with development, prioritizing technical and data excellence through international collaboration. Learning from the U.S. innovation practices while enhancing its regulatory capacity could bolster China’s position in the evolving AI landscape.
As AI competition intensifies, the race transcends technological leadership, shaping the future world order. While challenges persist, persistent efforts could enable China to achieve its aspirations in this transformative era.
Source: ygadwqwxppl, TASAM
